Safety: Part II - DTO Homicide Areas

Safety in Mexico is tremendously enhanced by avoiding areas with Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) activity.

1. What is a DTO?
2. Will DTO activities be lessened or eradicated?
3. Which Mexican states have the lowest DTO homicide rates?
4. What is the US State Department's view regarding safety in Mexico's non-border resort and retirement areas?

1. What is a DTO? A DTO is an organized crime syndicate transporting illegal drugs from manufacturing and cultivation points within or outside of Mexico to the United States and Canada for consumption. They interface with illegal drug producers in countries to the south and illegal distribution networks to the north - a trafficking business within Mexico valued at $19 - 29 billion USD per year*.

Make no mistake about it -- DTO's are alive and well in the US and Canada with similar widespread networks, but less notice. Why less notice? Because Mexico's president disturbed the territorial dynamics among Mexican drug cartels when he took office 3 1/2 years ago by aggressively adding military force to local, state & national police efforts seeking to eradicate this illegal business.

This crackdown on crime has created intermittent drug cartel power imbalances, "turf wars" resulted and more than 28,000 DTO homicides (2006 - 2010) have been left in its wake - 90% drug gang members, 5% military and police and 5% innocent parties.

2. It is reasonable to expect DTO activity will be lessened by the affects from three events currently unfolding:

• Ballot Box - in early November, 2010 California is voting to decriminalize cultivation and consumption of certain amounts of marijuana. Other states are considering the same. An affirmative vote is expected to reduce the illegal distribution of marijuana and related crime in California.

• Legislative Action - Mexico's President and Congress are currently holding bi-partisan discussions on decriminalizing certain illegal "soft" drugs. Subsequent legislation would likely lessen the government's pursuit of DTO activity.

• Mexican Presidential Election 2012 - Whomever is the new president and whichever political party assumes power (Mexican presidents by constitutional mandate serve a singular 6 year term), it is widely viewed one of the policies of the new administration will be to de-emphasize pursuit of DTO activity.

As these three events run to completion, many believe DTO homicides will diminish to pre-crackdown era levels. In the mean time, additional DTO homicides will likely occur. To insure safety it is important to avoid DTO homicide areas.

It is naive to expect DTO's will ever be eradicated -- in Mexico, the US or Canada. That would require the appetite for illegal drugs north of the Rio Grande to go away.

3. Which Mexican states have the lowest DTO homicide rates? The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently published a complete geographic accounting by state of DTO homicides over a 3 1/2 year period.** Two key "take-a-ways" from the WSJ article:

• Areas with the lowest DTO homicide number are the non-border tourist and retirement area states (Baja South, Guanajuanto, Jalisco, Nayarit and Quinta Roo).

• Areas with the greatest DTO homicide number (80% in 2010) are concentrated in border states and drug production / distribution route states (Baja North, Chihuahua, Durango, Cochuila, Guerreo, Michoacan, Nuevo Leon, Sinaloa, Sonora and Tamaulipas).

4. US State Department - Consular Services bulletin dated August 28, 2010 corroborates the above conclusion ... "The Mexican Government makes a considerable effort to protect US citizens and other visitors to major tourist destinations. Resort areas and tourist destinations in Mexico do not see the levels of drug related violence and crime reported in the border region and in areas along major drug trafficking routes."***

Part III (covered in next week's BLOG) will compare the homicide rates in select US cities to Mexican States.

Live well.

Norm

Costa Riviera is a boutique real estate firm specializing in beach homes in Puerto Vallarta and on the Riviera Nayarit.

Bookmark and visit http://blog.costariviera.com/ weekly for new postings. We bring you important facts from credible sources for use in acquiring property and living in Mexico. Let us know your questions and comments.
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* June 4, 2010, Associated Press, Illegal Drug Volume Estimate Study, Martha Mendoza
**July 6, 2010, WSJ, Mexico's Drug Killings - compiled by the San Diego Institute from data supplied by Reforma Newspaper, Mexico City.
*** August 28, 2010, US Department of State, US Consulate General Guadajajara, Travel Warning Mexico.

Safety: Part I - Crime Rates, Country Comparison

SAFETY is a key consideration when acquiring a primary or secondary residence - at home or abroad. Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) homicides reported in the media suggest visiting or living in Mexico is unsafe.

However, a review of crime and homicide data covering the past decade provides new perspectives and a different conclusion. Mexico is as safe in non-border resort and retirement areas as it was 10 years ago. See documented statistics below:

1. Crime Rate (World) * - per 1,000 population, 57 countries

(1998 - 2000)

• South Africa #1 - 12.07 (highest crime rate)
• United States #7 - 7.56
• Canada #9 - 7.11
• Mexico #20 - 2.40
• Azerbaijan #57 - .02 (lowest crime rate)

These statistics suggest Mexico is 3 times safer than the US or Canada.

Although this data is 10 years old, it likely represents nearly the same crime rates per 1,000 population today for Mexico, Canada and the US. Statistically, crime data for developed countries with large populations (Canada - 33,000,000; Mexico - 111,000,000; US - 330,000,000) don't vary greatly.

Mexico is a developed country ranking #14 in GDP among 59 countries tallied by the World Bank in 2009 - listed after Australia and before South Korea. Canada ranked #10 and the US ranked #1.

2. Homicide Rate (World) ** - per 100,000 population, 122 countries (2000 - 2009)

(2000 -----2009)

• 37 ----------71 #1 El Salvador (highest homicide - 92% increase)
• 14 ----------14 #15 Mexico (unchanged)
• 5.5 ----------5.4 #45 United States (2% reduction)
• 1.5 ----------1.8 #74 Canada (20% increase)
• -0----------- -0- #122 Liechtenstein (lowest homicide rate)

These statistics show Mexico's homicide rate the same at the beginning as at the end of the decade - 2.6 times the United States and 7.8 times Canada.

Interesting data points - Mexico's crime rate is much lower and homicide rate is much higher than US or Canada. Why?

Mexico's lower crime rate is attributed to the country as a whole having a considerate, peaceful and easy going society.

Mexico's higher homicide rate is attributed to disputes and rivalries among ethnic and religious groups, communal farms and drug gangs. The rate rarely includes tourists or foreigners living in Mexico. ***

3. Homicide Rate (Caribbean & Central American Countries)**** - per 100,000 population, countries with popular tourist or retirement areas:

(2006)

• Jamaica 49 (highest homicide rate)
• Belize 33.0
• Dominican Republic 23.5
• Puerto Rico 18.8
• Panama 11.3
• Mexico 11
• Costa Rica 7.6 (lowest homicide rate)

Mexico is ranked the second lowest in homicide rate among Caribbean and Central American Countries.

Crime in general and homicides specifically are rare in Mexico's non-border tourist and retirement areas (Riviera Nayarit, Puerto Vallarta, San Miguel de Allende, Lake Chapala, Los Cabos or Cancun).

4. Homicide Rate (DTO - Mexico)***** - 23,000 (2007 - 2009)

Regarding all DTO deaths, criminals totaled 90%, police and military totaled more than 5% and innocent people totaled less than 5% (Recent press statement by Mexico's president Felipe Calderon).

Loss of life by innocent civilians and law enforcement personnel regardless of cause is always unacceptable. However, in a country of 111.000,000 people, accidental deaths of innocent people will occur, but the predictability of occurrence is extremely low - on par with deaths from natural disasters (e.g. hurricanes or earthquakes).

5. Conclusion. Mexico is as safe today in non-border resort and retirement areas as it was 10 years ago. It is safer than most popular Caribbean and Latin American countries as well. However, safety requires use of common sense and avoiding travel in areas of known criminal activity - the same as in your home country.

Next weeks BLOG features Part II: review of DTO homicide areas to be avoided followed by Part III: comparison of homicide rates between US Cities and Mexico.

Live well.

Norm

Costa Riviera is a boutique real estate firm specializing in beach homes in Puerto Vallarta and on the Riviera Nayarit.

Bookmark and visit http://blog.costariviera.com/ weekly for new postings. We bring you important facts from credible sources to use when acquiring property and living in Mexico. Let us know your questions and comments.

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* United Nations (UN) Office of Drugs and Crime, Center for International Crime Prevention (1998 - 2000). These are the "freshest" numbers we could find.

** 2000 - 2009, Wikipedia, Homicide Rates by Country - compiled from various sources. Nationmaster.com shows similar rates and rankings extracted from the older UN data.

***August 23, 2010, USA Today, Chris Hawley, Crime in Mexico

**** 2006, Wikipedia, Homicide Rates by Country (2006 is most recent available data for countries compared).

***** April 16, 2010, Associated Press, Ivan Moreno - Calderon: Most Mexico Drug War Dead are Criminals.